Conservatives Are Overstating Their Advantage

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http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107778/the-polls-dont-use-2008-turnout-model

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

With the election drawing to a close numerous pundits are now hedging their bets with each side claiming a likely victory for their candidate. Yet there can only be one winner so whose method’s are correct?

Conservatives are claiming a large or a decently sized one at the least for their candidate Mitt Romney. In spite of this Romney has consistently been polling poorly in state polling and even among national poll’s his lead is weak. Yet the political right has maintained him as a solid favorite based on the belief  that the turnout demographics the poll’s are using are based on 2008 one’s and Romney is actually ahead or at least neck and neck.

This notion as the articles posted above point out is erred. Nate Cohn of the The New Republic points out most pollster’s weigh their samples based on the US’s demographics to produce their result rather than a basic sample.

Nate Silver in the second article in turn points out that Obama’s lead is heavily consistent among state poll’s indicating that he definitely has a lead. To further this claim Silver points out that the volume of poll’s mean’s that the margin of error is reduced, meaning a higher probability of the poll’s being right.

Looking at the these analysis I would have to agree with Cohn and Silver. The poll’s and the state poll’s have been consistent with results in most recent elections and for all the numerous firms to suddenly have a strong bias towards one candidate is highly unlikely. I do not believe Romney has no chance of winning but the odd’s just aren’t on his side. The poll’s have been too consistently against him. While I don’t expect the turnout to be like 2008 Republican’s are definitely underestimating a high potential minority turnout and the margin and turnout of young voters may not be quite as bad either. Obama’s campaign has a strong ground game and some of that might account for the seemingly high Democratic rates even among likely voters.

In short I still think this election is going to be at least somewhat close but in the end the poll’s overall have been showing a clear trend towards Obama(to the point where even the national poll’s are showing him ahead) and unless they truly have failed to capture the American electorate’s view, Obama will have a modest victory come this Tuesday.

-Alexander MacConnell

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About rowlanda12

This is a blog about the 2012 presidential election. Content is generated by students in Professor Heldman's Politics 101 class. She does not necessarily endorse the views expressed here.
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